... and ANWR drilling is not going to change this:

In the context world oil use, how much can we expect to import in the future?

What energy inputs will our economy need to continue its growth? US govt is projecting

Total worldwide recoverable conventional crude oil estimated by most geologists
to be less than ( < ) 100 trillion gallons, so

max lifetime = 100 trillion gallons/(1.2 trillion / year) = 100/1.2 years < 83 years.

But is it really this long? What am I forgetting? (Hint, see above plot.)

How rapidly can oil+natural gas be extracted? Depends on how concentrated the
reservoirs are. If too dilute, takes more energy to drill & pump out than you get from energy source!
Here are 2 estimates of production, soon dominated by Middle East fields, the dotted line in my
opinion being closer to reality.

Adding natural gas is not going to change the picture much ...

At Hubbert peak expect large price increases & switch from oil and natural gas to other fuels.

Can alternative fuels power our world? What fuels do we use today?

So there is an ENORMOUS challenge just ahead to replace the red & purple w/ blue + green + yellow.

Solar: A state-of-the-art 1 square meter solar panel will generate 440 kWatt-hours of electricity each year if located in the sunny SW US (but only 75% of this in NC).  US power consumption in 2000 was 2.9x10^13 kWatt-hours. How large an area would power the U.S. by sunlight alone? (Of course, other fuel sources would take some of the load.)

What other power sources and their problems can you think of?

To learn much more, enroll in Physics 18 coming next semester: (see http://gcecil.pageout.net)