National Academies Workshop on Trends in Oil Supply and Demand, and Potential for Peaking of Conventional Oil Production

AAAS Building Auditorium, Washington, D.C.
October 20 - 21, 2005

MP3 audio recordings by attendee Gerald Cecil (who had no control over the excessive microphone gain, sorry)

Thursday, October 20

SETTING THE STAGE (Mike Ramage, Chair)

Michael Ramage, Chairman, Workshop Planning Group (retired Executive Vice President, ExxonMobil R&D Company
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8:10-8:45
Issues in the Peaking of Global Production Debate
David Greene, Corporate Fellow, Oak Ridge National Lab
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8:45-9:20
World Oil Demand: Key Trends and Uncertainties
Nicola Pochettino, Senior Energy Analysts, IEA
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9:20-9:55
Global Overview of Petroleum Resources
Thomas Ahlbrandt, USGS
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FUTURE GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCE (Scott Tinker, Chair)

Introduction
Scott Tinker, Director, Bureau of Economic Geology, University of Texas, Austin
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10:00-10:35
A View from Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA)
Peter Jackson, CERA
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10:35-11:10
A Case for a Near-term Peak in Global Oil Production
Jeremy Gilbert, BarrelMore Ltd
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11:10-11:45
Questions Regarding Saudi Arabian Petroleum Supplies
Matt Simmons, Simmons and Co. International
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11:45-12:20
Exploration Trends, Diminishing Success, and Implications for Future Crude Supplies
Michael Rodgers, Senior Director, E+P Portfolio and Business Development Unit, PFC Energy
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1:40-2:15
The View from ExxonMobil
Scott Nauman, Manager, Economics and Energy, Corporate Planning Department, ExxonMobil Corp.
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2:15-2:50
Looking from the Outside
Kjell Aleklett, ASPO and Professor of Physics, Uppsala University audio >

2:50-3:25
A View of Global Oil Peaking
Herman Franssen, President, Intl Energy Associates, Inc
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3:25-4:00
OPEC Outlook on Oil Supply and Demand
Adnan Shihab-Eldin, Acting Secretary General, OPEC
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4:00-5:15
Group Discussion
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Friday, October 21

MITIGATION OPTIONS AND TIME TO IMPLEMENTATION
Introduction
David Greene, Corporate Fellow, Oak Ridge National Lab
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8:05-8:50
Overview of Mitigation Strategies
Robert Hirsch, Science Application International Corp
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8:50-9:35
The Role of Exploration and Production Technologies
Donald Paul, Chief Technology Officer, Chevron Corporation
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10:10-10:45
The Potential of Heavy Oil
Robert Heinemann, President and CEO, Berry Petroleum Corporation
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10:10-10:45
Oil Sands Development and Future Outlook
Eddy Isaacs, Managing Director, Albert Energy Research Institute
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11:20-11:55
Producing Liquid Fuels from Coal
David Gray, Director of Energy Systems Analysis, Mitretek Systems
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1:00-1:35
Liquid Fuels from Natural Gas
Emil Jacobs, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co
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1:35-2:10
Producing Liquid Fuels from Biomass
Daniel Sperling. Director, Institute for Transportation Studies, University of California, Davis
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2:10-2:55
Opportunities for Reducing Oil Demand for Transportation
John Heywood. Director, Sloan Automotive Laboratory, MIT
No audio record