Research Interest: Energy Transition


I am fascinated by the evolving transition from a time of cheap oil to expensive petroleum, the so-called "energy transition". That this is the pivotal event for our civilization is now very slowly penetrating into mainstream consciousness, but was limited to a handful when I stumbled upon it in Jan. 2001. There are many "rants" about energy ("all you gotta do..."), but here is an excellent news site, and this site produced by another astrophysicist has many useful links.

After attending various ASPO workshops on oil depletion, and much background investigation, I've come to appreciate some of the profound impacts that this transition will have on our civilization. I don't see how astronomy, space exploration, or non-fusion high-energy physics for that matter will be perceived by society as having much importance after the ~2010 conventional oil peak. Decline in conventional oil may be 3-6% annually thereafter, with non-conventional sources such as tarsands recovering only a small fraction (black, dark blue, white, and hatched in the above), and certainly not supporting the growth everyone expects to need.

As components of a totally inadequate response, I'm writing a book of course. But, I'm also informing students of what I've learned; they won't get this material in many other places at UNC. So, I'm redirecting first my teaching, and probably soon some of my research, from astrophysics to energy studies. I teach a Freshman Seminar on this topic, where students put together a Website to spread the word of impacts on North Carolina. In addition, I developed course Physics 18/18L (131/131L) to cover some of this material in a quantitative fashion. This course is also a Carolina Courses Online offering, allowing worldwide participation. I've developed some Web tools for visitors to explore possible scenarios for the energy transition as it applies to the poor old USA, the country likely to be hit the hardest as oil prices shoot up to collapse demand. But, of course it was our decision to occupy a dead-end Suburbia.

Two papers for SPIE relate to remote use of the SOAR Telescope, to minimize travel overhead (which will become very expensive as fuel costs rise inexorably) and to maximize observatory productivity.